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Rates Still Flat at 8-Month Lows

by Trevor Sines
Mortgage rateswere steady to slightly lower today, depending on the lender. Underlying financial markets continue moving in a narrow range--something that's not uncommon for the first few weeks of the summer. It's that market movement that can result in mortgage lenders issuing mid-day reprices. The more volatile and the bigger the moves, the more likely lenders are to reprice. Today saw zero reprices. Rates may have risen this morning were it not for weaker economic data. In general, weaker data tends to drive demand for the safe-haven of the bond market (which results in lower rates). This morning's Durable Goods […]

Rates Cap Impressively Sideways Week Near Long-Term Lows

by Trevor Sines
Weeks like this are the reason that some mortgage rate analysis is only done once a week. There haven't been any significant developments in financial markets--at least not as far as bonds (which dictate rates) have been concerned. And there certainly hasn't been any significant movement in mortgage rates themselves. In fact, with the exception of a modest dip last Wednesday, mortgage rates have been essentially flat for the entire month of June. As we've discussed all week, being "flat" at current levels is a good thing considering lenders continue quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates in a range from 3.875% […]

Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower

by Trevor Sines
Mortgage rateshave been so little-changed in recent days that yesterday's coverage wouldn't need to be changed in order to apply perfectly today. Indeed, the 3rd paragraph is a word-for-word repeat. To be fair though, we would need to update yesterday's reference to "especially over the past 5 days." That "5" would now be a "6," obviously. Any detectable difference in today's rate quotes would come in the form of slightly lower upfront costs versus yesterday. The actual interest rate quote remains unchanged. This sideways trend could easily continue for several more days. ...(read more) Forward this article via email:Send a […]

Mortgage Rates are Barely Budging (And That's Great!)

by Trevor Sines
Mortgage rateshave been locked in an exceptionally narrow range for most of the month of June, but especially over the past 5 days. Given that mortgage rates are determined by the bond market where trading levels move constantly throughout the day, it can be useful to consider what's been happening with those trading levels. Long story short, they haven't been remotely close to moving any higher or lower than the highs and lows seen last Wednesday. In other words, Wednesday's range set the boundaries of the current playing field for rates, and they haven't left the field since then. ...(read […]

Rates Fall Slightly to Remain Near 8-Month Lows

by Trevor Sines
Mortgage rateswere steady to slightly lowertoday, with underlying bond markets essentially erasing the damage seen yesterday. This was neither here nor there for the mortgage world as most lenders didn't adjust rates much higher yesterday (despite bond weakness). Thus, they didn't have much to do today when bonds strengthened. In general "bond market strength" = lower rates and vice versa. There were no significant economic reports or major market-moving headlines today--at least not for rates. Oil prices and political headlines might make the evening news, but neither were directly responsible for the bond market improvement. ...(read more) Forward this article […]

Mortgage Rates Fairly Steady to Begin Week

by Trevor Sines
Mortgage rateswere mostly flatagain today, despite bond market weakness (lower bond prices generally mean higher rates). Between MBS (the mortgage-backed-securities that underlie mortgage rate movement) and US Treasuries (the risk-free benchmark for all US debt/bonds), the latter fared worse. In other words, mortgage bonds outperformed Treasuries. That's one of the reasons we didn't see much movement in mortgage rates today. The other reason was as simple as the shape of market movement on Friday. Bonds improved throughout the course of the day but most lenders didn't adjust rate sheets to reflect that improvement. As such, today's weaker bond market levels […]

Mortgage Rates Holding Most of Their Recent Gains

by Trevor Sines
Mortgage rateswere flattoday, after weaker-than-expected construction data prompted a positive bounce for bond markets. In general, bonds (which dictate mortgage rates) improve when economic data is weaker. Before this morning's data, rates were at risk of coming out slightly higher compared to yesterday's latest offerings. By holding flat, rates remain very close to the best levels seen in more than 8 months. This also keeps rates in a gentle downtrend over the past 3 months. Risk-tolerant clients are typically best-served by floating their rates while these trends remain intact. If rates break above the trend, it would serve as a […]

Rates Drop to 8-Month Lows

by Trevor Sines
Mortgage ratesfell convincingly today, though not all lenders adjusted rates sheets in proportion to the gains seen in bond markets (which underlie rate movement). Those gains came early, with this morning's economic data coming in much weaker than expected. Markets were especially sensitive to the Consumer Price Index (an inflation report) which showed core annual inflation at 1.7% versus a median forecast of 1.9%. Core annual inflation under 2.0% is a hot topic--especially today--considering that's one of the Fed's main goals. This afternoon's Fed Announcement did acknowledge the recent drop in inflation, but continued to suggest it was being held […]

Recent Mortgage Rate Stability Could Change Tomorrow

by Trevor Sines
Mortgage ratesmoved modestlyhighertoday, for most lenders. This had more to do with yesterday's market movement than today's. Bond markets were weakening yesterday afternoon (which typically results in rates moving higher). But the weakness came too late in the day for most lenders to bother with reissuing rate sheets. Instead, they waited for this morning. With a bit of weakness remaining intact, it was an easy call to raise loan costs. Even so, the day to day movement in rate quotes continues to be quite small. The average scenario won't be detectably different if quoted today vs yesterday. Interest rates themselves […]

Mortgage Rates Steady-to-Higher as Busy Week Begins

by Trevor Sines
Mortgage rateswere either flat or slightly higher, depending on the lender today. Movement in underlying bond markets suggested a modest increase in rates, but it came too late in the day for most lenders to respond with a mid-day rate change. As such, rates SHOULD be slightly higher, all other things being equal. If bond markets don't change much between now and tomorrow morning, most lenders will be in slightly worse shape. Keep in mind that we're talking about extraordinarily small variations in loan pricing. Few, if any borrowers would see a change in the actual interest rate quote applied […]